Assessing the Reliability of America’s Electrical Grid

In a recent Senate Committee hearing on May 4, 2023, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) chairman Willie L. Phillips raised significant concerns regarding the reliability of the U.S. electrical grid amid a backdrop of increasing demand and shifting energy policies. Traditionally, Americans have enjoyed a stable electrical supply, with an average customer experiencing power outages less than twice a year. However, this reliability is under threat due to the premature retirement of dispatchable generators like coal and natural gas plants, which have been vital in balancing electricity demand. Such retirements are largely driven by federal initiatives aimed at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions, impacting the traditional energy landscape where renewed investments in intermittent renewable sources like wind and solar energy dominate.

FERC’s alarm over electrical grid reliability stems from the belief that the ongoing transition toward a greener energy framework is not keeping pace with growing electricity needs. Former FERC Commissioner James Danly noted that transitioning away from dependable power sources compromises the grid’s ability to maintain stability. While increasing reliance on wind and solar is crucial for mitigating climate change, it does not offer the same immediate reliability as coal and gas generation. This creates a dilemma where the traditional sources of energy, which can be ramped up or down based on consumer demands, are slowly being phased out, potentially leading to a precarious grid situation.

FERC commissioner Allison Clements highlighted the necessity of enhancing the nation’s grid infrastructure to address potential reliability crises. The existing grid spans over 160,000 miles of high-voltage lines, serving 145 million customers across the United States. Clements proposed leveraging Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs) and distributed energy sources to improve efficiency without immediately necessitating the construction of new, expensive transmission lines. The Department of Energy warns that, to meet future demand driven by trends such as electric vehicles and home electrification, the U.S. may need to boost its transmission capacity by 60 to 125 percent by 2035 — a figure indicative of the critical junction at which the electrical grid stands today.

One innovative approach to bolstering transmission capability involves implementing new high-voltage transmission lines that can carry a significantly larger electric load than traditional lines. Current high-voltage systems are based on outdated designs that limit electricity transfer capabilities, particularly when heat causes wires to sag. A promising solution comes from companies like TS Conductor, which utilize carbon fiber-reinforced wires to replace traditional steel cores. This advanced technology enables these lines to transmit two to three times more power while mitigating risks associated with sagging, such as sparking wildfires and limiting efficiency.

Reconductoring existing transmission lines is an attractive solution, potentially allowing for a near-term increase in capacity without the extensive time and expense associated with building new lines. Research from the University of California, Berkeley, suggests that such reconductoring efforts can double the capacity of current systems at less than half the cost of new lines. The strategy reclaims existing rights-of-way for development while minimizing regulatory hurdles. Furthermore, this method aligns well with national clean electricity goals, unlocking ample renewable energy that could significantly contribute to achieving over 90 percent of the federal government’s set clean electricity targets by 2035.

In summary, the current electrical grid landscape faces unprecedented challenges amid the transition to more sustainable energy sources. As reliance on dispatchable power sources diminishes, the need for innovative solutions to uphold grid reliability becomes increasingly pressing. This includes the adoption of new technologies like carbon fiber conductors and investments in reconductoring existing lines for enhanced capacity. These efforts, alongside strategic policy decisions, will ultimately determine whether the U.S. can navigate the complexities of modern energy demands while ensuring a resilient and reliable electrical grid for future generations.