Developing Nations Miss Out on $1.3 Trillion Annually from Wealthy States at U.N. Climate Change Conference

The recent annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) held in Baku, Azerbaijan culminated with rich countries committing to provide $300 billion annually for climate project financing aimed at supporting developing nations. These funds will be sourced from diverse channels, including public expenditure, loans from development banks, and private investments facilitated by government initiatives, with the target of reaching this financial support by 2035. This ambitious New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance is particularly significant, as it represents a substantial increase from the previous commitment of $100 billion made by developed nations during COP15 in 2009. However, this pledge still falls short of the $1.3 trillion that developing countries argue is necessary for transitioning to low-carbon energy technologies and for addressing the impacts of climate change, such as severe weather and rising sea levels. The conference underscored the urgency for collaboration among all parties involved, including both developed nations and emerging economies like China and Saudi Arabia, to mobilize sufficient funds for climate actions.

Developing nations are adamant in their demand for increased funding and are not backing down even in the face of current commitments that appear inadequate. The introduction of the “Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T” seeks to further amplify climate finance discussions ahead of the next U.N. climate conference in Brazil (COP30). This roadmap aims to ensure that the promised funding is realized and integrated into future discussions. The anticipated contributions in the upcoming meetings underscore the importance of solidarity in transitioning towards sustainable practices and mitigating the adverse effects of climate change. Additionally, COP29 emphasized the need for countries to submit their updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for emission reductions by February 2025, as part of a global stocktake that will assess progress made under the Paris Agreement.

A revealing aspect of the global stocktake is its acknowledgment of the significant gap between current NDCs and the targets necessary to meet climate thresholds set forth in the Paris Agreement. The conference reaffirmed the goal of restricting the increase in global average temperatures to below 2 °C, with efforts to limit the rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. To meet these stringent temperature goals, substantial reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—42% relative to 2019 levels by 2030—are essential. However, the collective NDCs submitted thus far suggest only a modest predicted reduction of about 2.6% by 2030, highlighting a profound shortfall in current climate actions and illustrating the ongoing challenges faced by nations in curtailing emissions.

Despite nearly a decade of negotiations following the Paris Agreement, global GHG emissions continue to increase, correlating with rising average global temperatures. Current trends indicate that the year 2024 may break records as the hottest year observed, with temperatures projected to rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial averages. This trend serves as a stark reminder of the urgency surrounding climate action and the need for a reevaluation of commitments and strategies to avoid catastrophic climate impacts. Enhanced climate finance and robust emissions reductions are critical to arresting these trends and achieving the established temperature objectives.

The geopolitical landscape surrounding climate action is also marked by changing administrations, particularly in the United States. The Biden administration had set an ambitious target to elevate U.S. international climate finance to $11 billion for the year 2024. However, with the anticipated shift in leadership following the upcoming elections, much of this commitment could be jeopardized. The incoming Trump administration is expected to roll back climate initiatives, which may include withdrawing support from the Paris Agreement and diminishing efforts to reduce U.S. GHG emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030. This anticipated policy reversal raises concerns about the U.S.’s leadership role in global climate governance and the potential repercussions on international collaborations aimed at addressing climate change.

Interestingly, projections suggest that U.S. emissions may still decrease by 28% by 2030 despite the expected policy shifts under a Trump administration. This reduction reflects broader structural changes in the energy sector and advancements in technology, alongside shifts in market dynamics that favor cleaner energy sources. Such developments highlight that even amidst political changes, the momentum towards reducing emissions and transforming energy systems could persist. Nevertheless, the necessity for strong international partnerships and consistent political commitment remains paramount to fostering effective climate solutions and ensuring financial support reaches those most in need. Overall, COP29 has set the stage for continued negotiations and actions leading up to COP30, reaffirming the critical need for collaborative efforts in addressing the global climate crisis.