Kamala’s Challenge in California

In the lead-up to the presidential election, President-elect Donald Trump consistently associated his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, with California’s significant challenges, particularly the rising cost of living. At an October rally, Trump labeled Harris a “radical-left lunatic” responsible for the state’s troubles, using hyperbolic rhetoric to underscore a fundamental criticism that carries weight with voters nationwide. In 2024, California stands out for its exorbitant housing costs, which have become a pressing national issue, directly affecting Democratic aspirations. Housing affordability, considered a key component of inflation, garnered attention unlike any recent election, highlighting systemic failures in California’s housing policies. Despite Harris’s ambitious promise to build 3 million homes, the stigma surrounding California’s high housing costs persisted, making it difficult for working- and middle-class citizens to achieve homeownership.

The stark reality in California reveals that the median home prices are over eight times the median household income, a stark contrast to the healthy ratios seen in other states, where the norm is between three to five times income. As a result, many renters in California are under immense financial strain, dedicating at least a third, if not half, of their income to housing. With nearly 200,000 Californians homeless, the housing crisis exacerbates the narrative that California’s governance has failed its constituents. This situation has led many Democrats across the nation to be hesitant about discussing California, unlike their Republican counterparts, who embrace Texas’s political realities. The Golden State, once perceived as a dream destination, has transformed into a symbol of unattainable aspirations, prompting a mass migration out of the state.

For over two decades, a notable population decline has plagued California, evident in the sluggish growth rates in the 2010s and the loss of a congressional seat after reapportionment in 2020, while red states gained seats. In 2022 alone, approximately 102,000 Californians moved to Texas, not driven by a desire for a better climate or job opportunities, but rather escaping the crippling cost of living. While some progressives inaccurately viewed this exodus as a means to flip states like Nevada blue, the reality is stark; Nevada voted for a Republican presidential candidate for the first time in two decades. Moreover, new polls indicate that California migrants may hold more conservative views than the local populations in their new states, raising concerns about long-term implications for the Democratic Party.

The California housing crisis cannot be solely attributed to Kamala Harris, nor is it an issue isolated to Democratic policies alone. The regulatory environment, influenced by both NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) sentiments from all political spectrums and historical decisions like the environmental review act originated under Republican Governor Ronald Reagan, has hampered housing development for years. Despite Democrats holding supermajority control in California since 2011, the persistent challenges and lack of solutions regarding the housing crisis bring into question the effectiveness of decades of Democratic leadership. The ineffectiveness in addressing the housing crisis can leave undecided voters skeptical, particularly in light of continuing affordability issues.

Following the election, Governor Gavin Newsom focused on rallying support against potential threats to reproductive rights, immigration, and climate policies, ignoring the cost-of-living issues that shaped the election outcome. While a small faction of housing reform advocates within the Democratic Party works to ease the bureaucratic bottlenecks stifling construction efforts, they frequently encounter resistance from their own colleagues who prioritize local interests over broader housing solutions. Although some reforms since 2017, such as legalizing granny flats and streamlining permitting processes, indicate progress, the lack of comprehensive measures further complicates the crisis.

As the dynamics of California’s housing policies continue to shape national conversation, the Democratic Party must reconcile its leadership with the urgency of addressing cost-of-living challenges, particularly housing affordability. The electoral landscape of 2024 may hinge on the effectiveness of housing reform initiatives and whether the next Democratic presidential nominee can detach from the difficulties afflicting the state. With California’s substantial influence on national politics, it’s imperative that Democrats reevaluate strategies and advocate for tangible solutions to ensure that the state is not a growing liability but rather a beacon of a viable future.