Remaining US Policy Options in Syria

The unexpected collapse of the Assad dynasty after 54 years of rule has dramatically reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, leaving a power vacuum and a complex web of competing interests. Bashar al-Assad’s flight to Russia, seeking asylum, marks the end of an era defined by authoritarian rule and brutal suppression of dissent. The sudden uprising spearheaded by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the former head of Al Qaeda in Syria who later established an independent Islamist organization, has propelled him into a position of significant influence, though not undisputed control. The United States, caught off guard by the swift regime change, now faces the intricate challenge of navigating the postwar scenario, balancing its strategic interests with its stated commitment to democratic ideals and regional stability.

The emerging power dynamics in Syria are fraught with complexities and uncertainties. While a coalition of local militias with ties to Jordanian and U.S. intelligence initially entered Damascus, al-Jolani’s subsequent arrival and installation of a loyalist as prime minister solidify his role as a key power broker. The United States, with its existing military presence of approximately 900 troops, is poised to exert considerable influence, albeit within a volatile and unpredictable context. The bombing of alleged Islamic State hideouts in formerly Russian-controlled areas underscores the U.S.’s ongoing counterterrorism efforts while simultaneously signaling its intent to challenge Russian influence. However, the involvement of U.S. allies, Turkey and Israel, further complicates the situation, introducing new layers of strategic considerations and potential conflicts.

Turkey’s attack on Manbij, a town near the Turkish border and controlled by U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), highlights the precarious balance of alliances in the region. The clash between Turkey and the SDF, some of whom were formerly trained by the CIA, underscores the potential for intra-alliance friction and the difficulties of managing competing interests on the ground. Israel’s seizure of additional Syrian territory along the Golan Heights, justified as a temporary defensive measure, adds another dimension to the territorial disputes and raises concerns about further escalation. These actions by U.S. allies, while ostensibly aimed at securing their respective interests, complicate the already challenging task of establishing a stable and unified Syria.

Beyond its military footprint, the United States wields significant economic leverage through sanctions imposed on Syria during the war, including the Caesar Civilian Protection Act, which aims to impede reconstruction efforts under the Assad regime. The designation of al-Jolani’s organization, HTS, as a terrorist group by the U.S., UN, and EU presents another potential obstacle to a smooth transition. This designation could subject an HTS-led government to further sanctions, complicating reconstruction and potentially hindering efforts to stabilize the country. However, the U.S. has signaled a willingness to reconsider HTS’s terrorist designation if al-Jolani establishes an inclusive government, suggesting a pragmatic approach to achieving its objectives in Syria.

The divergent views within the U.S. political landscape further complicate the policy approach towards post-Assad Syria. While the Biden administration emphasizes the need for a Syrian government committed to human rights and the rule of law, the incoming Trump administration expresses skepticism about U.S. involvement, advocating a non-interventionist stance. This contrast in perspectives highlights the ongoing debate within the U.S. regarding its role in the Middle East and the appropriate balance between interventionism and restraint. The challenge lies in reconciling these differing viewpoints and formulating a coherent and effective policy that addresses the multifaceted complexities of the Syrian situation.

The future of Syria remains uncertain, marked by a precarious interplay of competing interests, shifting alliances, and the formidable task of rebuilding a nation ravaged by years of conflict. The U.S. faces a difficult balancing act, navigating the complex web of actors and interests while pursuing its stated goals of regional stability, counterterrorism, and the establishment of a democratic Syrian government. The success of these efforts will depend on the delicate balancing of diplomatic engagement, military presence, and economic leverage, as well as the willingness of regional and international actors to cooperate towards a shared vision for a peaceful and stable Syria. The path forward is fraught with challenges, and the outcome remains to be seen.