The New York Times Argues That D.C.’s Minimum Wage Increase Generated Jobs—We Uncovered Their Mistake.

In March 2024, a New York Times article by Priya Krishna claimed that the number of restaurant workers in Washington, D.C. had increased following a citywide referendum to raise the minimum wage. Krishna cited data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), stating that employment figures had risen from 13,690 in 2022 to 14,168 by September 2023. However, this assertion was based on a misinterpretation of the data; the BLS figures were actually in the millions, specifically 14,168,000, indicating that Krishna was referencing national figures rather than local employment statistics. After Reason contacted The Times regarding this critical mistake, the publication issued a correction.

The ramifications of the original error were significant. By the time the correction was published, the advocacy group One Fair Wage had already highlighted The Times’ misleading figures as evidence that the minimum wage increase had not adversely affected employment in D.C. However, the reality painted a different picture. After the new minimum wage law took effect in May 2023, employment at full-service restaurants initially rose to a peak of 30,111 by December 2023, but had subsequently dropped by 4.1 percent to 28,875 by October 2024. This decline suggests potential negative ramifications associated with the wage increase, contradicting claims made by proponents of the measure.

Following the correction, The Times revised the statistic, indicating that all leisure and hospitality jobs combined had increased from 71,762 to 77,356, covering a wide array of establishments including hotels, theaters, and spas. However, these figures muddied the waters, as they failed to specify that the numbers referred to all leisure and hospitality jobs, not just those in the restaurant sector. Such broad categorizations bring into question the conclusions that can be drawn about the specific impact of the minimum wage increase on restaurant employment in D.C.

Krishna’s choice of data from September 2023 raised further eyebrows, especially since it’s common for the BLS to release monthly employment data. When analyzing the restaurant sector specifically, more relevant data would indicate that full-service restaurant employment had actually fallen to 28,632 by February 2024, a decrease of 3.52 percent compared to when the minimum wage law was enacted in May 2023. Such findings contradict the purported narrative that the wage increase would not negatively impact employment and indicates a potential bias in the reporting.

Beyond the statistics, One Fair Wage leveraged Krishna’s initial article to bolster their advocacy campaign, releasing a video on Instagram celebrating what they deemed favorable outcomes stemming from their efforts. In this video, she referred to the article and presented inflated figures regarding the increase in the number of restaurant establishments. However, these figures again referred to the broader leisure and hospitality sector rather than the specific focus of the minimum wage issue, thus misrepresenting the local conditions for restaurants in D.C.

In conclusion, the case surrounding Krishna’s article exemplifies how misinterpretation of statistics can shape public discourse surrounding policy issues such as minimum wage increases. The misunderstanding led to erroneous claims that were later used by advocacy groups to support their agendas, underscoring the importance of accurate reporting and comprehension of data. The shift in employment numbers post-minimum wage enactment indicates a complex reality where well-intentioned policies may have unintended consequences for specific sectors, particularly the restaurant industry in Washington, D.C.