St. Kitts and Nevis Meteorological Forecast

This detailed weather forecast, valid until 8:00 am on Saturday, January 4th, 2025, paints a picture of generally stable atmospheric conditions over the next 24 hours, punctuated by the possibility of brief showers. The forecast highlights a partly cloudy day with a low 30% chance of precipitation, transitioning into a partly cloudy night with a slightly higher 40% chance of showers. Temperatures are expected to range from a pleasant 21°C (70°F) to a warm 31°C (88°F), offering a comfortable spread for outdoor activities, despite the potential for occasional rainfall. The prevailing winds will be easterly, blowing at a moderate speed of 13 to 28 km/h (8 to 17 mph).

The marine forecast indicates moderately rough seas with heights ranging from 1.2 to 1.8 meters (4 to 6 feet), coupled with northerly swells. This combination of wave activity has prompted the issuance of a high surf advisory, cautioning individuals engaged in coastal activities, such as swimming, boating, or fishing, to exercise increased vigilance and awareness of potentially hazardous conditions. The northerly swells suggest a distant weather system generating waves that are propagating towards the forecast area, contributing to the elevated sea state.

The forecast emphasizes the dominant influence of settled atmospheric conditions, suggesting a relatively stable air mass with limited potential for significant weather changes. However, the presence of low-level moisture introduces a degree of uncertainty. This moisture, potentially originating from nearby bodies of water or residual humidity, could condense and form localized showers. The low probability during the day indicates a smaller coverage area and shorter duration of these showers, while the slightly increased probability at night suggests a marginally higher likelihood of more widespread or prolonged rainfall.

The transition from a 30% chance of showers during the day to a 40% chance at night can be attributed to diurnal temperature variations. As the sun sets and temperatures cool, the atmosphere becomes more stable, potentially trapping moisture near the surface. This increased stability can enhance the likelihood of condensation and precipitation, explaining the higher probability of showers during the nighttime hours. The “partly cloudy” designation for both day and night indicates a mix of sunshine and cloud cover, suggesting that even with the potential for showers, there will be periods of clear skies.

The sunrise and sunset times provide valuable contextual information for planning outdoor activities. The sunset at 5:50 pm marks the end of daylight hours, while the sunrise at 6:42 am signifies the beginning of the next day. This relatively short night duration is typical for this time of year, offering ample daylight for both work and leisure activities. The combination of the temperature range, wind conditions, and periods of sunshine, even with the chance of showers, indicates a generally pleasant forecast, suitable for a variety of outdoor pursuits.

In summary, this forecast presents a nuanced picture of the upcoming weather conditions. While the overall atmosphere remains settled, the presence of low-level moisture introduces the possibility of brief showers, particularly during the night. Temperatures will be comfortable, ranging from 21°C to 31°C, with moderate easterly winds. The marine forecast indicates moderately rough seas with northerly swells, necessitating a high surf advisory. The sunrise and sunset times frame the daylight hours, providing a useful context for planning outdoor activities. Despite the chance of intermittent showers, the overall forecast suggests generally pleasant conditions for the next 24 hours.