St Kitts and Nevis Meteorological Forecast

This detailed weather forecast, valid until 8:00 AM on Saturday, March 1, 2025, predicts a day characterized by cloudy skies, a significant chance of showers, and moderately strong easterly winds. The forecast highlights the influence of a weak trough system, which is expected to increase moisture and atmospheric instability, leading to favorable conditions for rainfall across the islands. The predicted rainfall accumulation for the day ranges from 6 to 13 millimeters (0.25 to 0.50 inches), indicating a moderate rainfall event. While the majority of the day will be cloudy, with a 70% probability of showers, conditions are expected to improve slightly overnight. The forecast suggests a decrease in moisture and instability towards the evening, resulting in partly cloudy skies and a reduced chance of showers, down to 40%.

The dominant weather feature contributing to the predicted rainfall is the presence of a weak trough. A trough, in meteorological terms, refers to an elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure. This low-pressure zone facilitates the convergence of air masses, leading to upward motion. As the air rises, it cools and condenses, forming clouds and precipitation. The forecast indicates that this trough is currently weak, suggesting that the rainfall is likely to be scattered and moderate rather than widespread and intense. The expected reduction in moisture and instability overnight indicates that the trough is likely to weaken or move away from the area, leading to improved conditions.

The forecast also provides details about the wind conditions. East winds are predicted to prevail throughout the forecast period, with speeds ranging from 19 to 30 kilometers per hour (12 to 18 miles per hour). Furthermore, the forecast warns of potential wind gusts reaching up to 48 kilometers per hour (30 miles per hour). These relatively strong winds are likely associated with the pressure gradient created by the weak trough. Wind gusts, which are short bursts of higher wind speed, can pose a hazard to outdoor activities and may require precautions for lightweight structures or objects susceptible to wind damage.

The forecast also includes information about sea conditions. Wave heights are predicted to be between 1 and 1.8 meters (3 to 6 feet). These moderate sea conditions are likely influenced by the prevailing wind speeds. While not particularly hazardous, these wave heights may impact small boat operations or other activities near the shoreline. Individuals engaging in such activities should exercise caution and monitor local sea conditions.

The forecast offers specific temporal markers for the forecast period. It was issued on February 28, 2025, and remains valid until 8:00 AM on Saturday, March 1, 2025. Furthermore, the forecast provides the times for sunset and sunrise. Sunset is predicted to occur at 6:17 PM on February 28, while sunrise is expected at 6:29 AM on March 1. These temporal details provide context for the forecast, allowing individuals to plan their activities accordingly.

In summary, the forecast predicts a day of cloudy skies, moderate rainfall, and moderately strong easterly winds. The rainfall is attributed to a weak trough system, which is expected to bring increased moisture and instability. However, conditions are anticipated to improve overnight, with a decrease in cloud cover and rainfall probability. The forecast also provides details about wind speeds, potential gusts, sea conditions, and the timing of sunset and sunrise. This comprehensive information allows individuals to prepare for the expected weather conditions and plan their activities accordingly.