St. Kitts and Nevis Meteorological Forecast

This weather forecast, valid until 8 PM on Monday, May 19, 2025, details the expected meteorological conditions for a specific island region. The dominant weather feature, a mid to upper-level trough that has been responsible for recent rainfall, is predicted to move eastward and weaken. This eastward movement signifies a shift in the atmospheric pattern, suggesting a transition from a period of enhanced precipitation to more settled conditions. The weakening of the trough indicates a diminishing influence on local weather, implying a reduction in the intensity and frequency of rainfall. However, despite this positive shift, the forecast highlights the potential for lingering atmospheric moisture and some cloud cover.

The decrease in cloud cover is attributed to the departing trough, which will allow for more sunshine to penetrate the atmosphere. However, the forecast also mentions the presence of a low-level ridge, a feature often associated with stable atmospheric conditions. This ridge will generate a moderate east-southeast breeze ranging from 13 to 26 km/h (8 to 16 mph). While generally conducive to fair weather, this breeze may transport shallow clouds and pockets of moisture over the islands, leading to intermittent showers. This interplay between the weakening trough and the emergent ridge creates a somewhat mixed weather picture, characterized by a gradual transition from cloudy to partly cloudy conditions, with lingering chances of precipitation. The variation in wind speed, with some areas experiencing lighter winds, further underscores this dynamic atmospheric state.

The forecast for tonight anticipates mostly cloudy skies with a 60% chance of showers. This suggests that the influence of the departing trough will still be noticeable during the nighttime hours. The continued presence of moisture and cloud cover indicates the potential for scattered rainfall across the region. As the night progresses, the wind is expected to decrease in some areas, creating localized variations in wind conditions. The transition to tomorrow, however, promises a change in the weather pattern.

For tomorrow, the forecast predicts partly cloudy and slightly hazy conditions, also with a 60% chance of showers. This indicates a gradual improvement in the weather, with more sunshine breaking through the clouds. The haze likely results from suspended atmospheric particles, possibly originating from dust or other aerosols transported by the wind. Despite the increased sunshine and haziness, the chance of showers remains relatively high, suggesting that the atmosphere will still retain some moisture. The continued possibility of rainfall underscores the lingering influence of the previous weather system and the incoming moisture transported by the low-level ridge.

The forecast also provides information regarding sea conditions and sunrise/sunset times. The seas are predicted to be relatively calm, ranging from 1.2 to 1.5 meters (4 to 5 feet). This suggests favorable conditions for marine activities. The sunrise is scheduled for 5:38 AM, and the sunset for 6:37 PM. These times reflect the lengthening daylight hours typical of this time of year. Finally, the crucial information regarding the discontinuation of the flash flood watch signifies a significant decrease in the risk of flooding, offering reassurance to residents and visitors alike.

In summary, the forecast portrays a transitional weather pattern, moving from a period of rain associated with a departing trough to a more settled regime influenced by a developing low-level ridge. While the chances of showers persist, the overall trend is towards drier and sunnier conditions. The moderate breeze, slightly hazy skies, and calm seas complete the picture of the expected weather for the next 24 hours. The discontinuation of the flash flood watch further emphasizes the diminishing threat of severe weather. This detailed forecast allows residents and visitors to plan their activities accordingly, taking into account the potential for intermittent showers while enjoying the generally improving weather conditions.