St. Kitts and Nevis Weather Forecast

This detailed weather forecast pertains to a specific 24-hour period commencing on January 16, 2025, and concluding at 8:00 am on January 17, 2025. The forecast highlights the influence of a shear line, a zone where two air masses meet, causing atmospheric instability and increased moisture. This shear line is the primary driver of the predicted unsettled weather, characterized by a moderate chance of showers throughout the forecast period. In addition to the atmospheric conditions, the forecast also addresses marine conditions, warning of hazardous conditions along coastal areas, particularly those with gently sloping shorelines, due to ground swells generated elsewhere.

The temperature forecast indicates a relatively warm day with a high of 30°C (86°F) and a low of 22°C (72°F), suggesting a tropical or subtropical climate. The cloud cover is expected to be predominantly cloudy during the daytime, transitioning to partly cloudy conditions overnight. The probability of precipitation is expressed as a 50% chance of showers during the day, increasing to a 60% chance during the night. This indicates a moderate likelihood of rainfall, although the exact timing and intensity of the showers remain uncertain.

Wind conditions are predicted to be from the north-northeast during the day, shifting to northeast overnight. Wind speeds are expected to range between 19 and 32 km/h (12 and 20 mph), indicating moderate breezes. These wind conditions, combined with the presence of northerly swells, contribute to the anticipated sea state. The sea state forecast predicts wave heights between 0.9 and 1.8 meters (3 and 6 feet), with northerly swells reaching up to 1.5 meters (5 feet). These conditions warrant caution for coastal activities and emphasize the potential hazards along gently sloping shorelines.

The forecast also provides the times for sunset and sunrise. Sunset is predicted for 5:58 pm on January 16th, while sunrise is expected at 6:44 am on January 17th. This information provides context for the diurnal cycle and the transition from daytime to nighttime conditions. The combination of meteorological factors, including the shear line, cloud cover, wind direction, and sea state, paints a picture of a moderately unsettled weather pattern with a potential for showers and hazardous coastal conditions.

The presence of the shear line is the key meteorological element driving the forecast. Shear lines are boundaries separating air masses with different characteristics, often leading to instability and the development of clouds and precipitation. In this case, the shear line introduces moisture into the area, increasing the likelihood of showers. The interaction between the wind and the sea state is also significant. The northerly swells, generated by distant weather systems, interact with the local wind conditions to create potentially hazardous conditions along the coast. Gently sloping shorelines are particularly vulnerable to these swells, as they can amplify wave heights and increase the risk of coastal erosion and flooding.

The forecast serves as a valuable tool for planning activities and mitigating potential risks associated with the predicted weather conditions. The information on temperature, precipitation probability, wind speed, and sea state allows individuals and organizations to make informed decisions regarding outdoor activities, coastal navigation, and other weather-sensitive operations. The warning about hazardous coastal conditions due to ground swells is particularly important for ensuring public safety and minimizing the potential impact of these conditions on coastal communities. The combination of atmospheric and marine factors underscores the importance of heeding weather forecasts and taking appropriate precautions.