Potential Threat of Drought in the Caribbean (2025)

The Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CDPMN), operating under the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), has expressed concerns regarding drought conditions impacting parts of the Caribbean region during the first half of 2025. The January 2025 Drought Bulletin issued by CIMH highlights the potential for short-term drought to affect smaller water bodies like rivers, streams, and ponds in the northern Bahamas and Cuba by the end of March. This prediction underscores the vulnerability of these islands to water scarcity and the potential disruption to local ecosystems and communities reliant on these freshwater resources. The bulletin further emphasizes the need for vigilance and proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of the anticipated drought.

Adding to the complexity of the situation, the bulletin also points to the uncertainty surrounding rainfall patterns in Belize between April and June. This uncertainty raises the specter of long-term drought, potentially impacting larger water resources such as major rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater by the end of May. The consequences of such a prolonged dry period could be severe, affecting agriculture, water supply for human consumption, and the overall health of the environment. The northern Bahamas and southern Puerto Rico are also identified as areas requiring close monitoring for the potential development of long-term drought conditions, highlighting the geographical spread of the drought risk across the Caribbean.

The early months of 2025 have presented a mixed picture of rainfall patterns across the Caribbean. While some areas have experienced significantly dry conditions, others have witnessed unusually high rainfall. Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic have recorded minimal rainfall, with some areas receiving less than 2mm. This extreme dryness contrasts sharply with the heavy rainfall observed in western Cuba, the ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao), and Trinidad and Tobago, where some areas have received over 100mm more than the average rainfall for the period. This uneven distribution of rainfall further complicates the drought situation, creating localized challenges while other areas grapple with potential flooding and other related issues.

The contrasting rainfall patterns observed in the early part of 2025 underscore the complex interplay of climatic factors influencing the Caribbean region. While January typically falls within the dry season, which extends from mid-December to mid-April, the significant deviation from normal rainfall in some areas raises concerns about the potential for prolonged dry spells and their impact on water resources. The below-normal rainfall in certain regions, while not entirely unexpected during the dry season, reinforces the vulnerability of these areas to water shortages. Conversely, the unusually heavy rainfall in other areas highlights the potential for localized flooding and its associated consequences.

The CDPMN’s concerns and the CIMH’s predictions underscore the importance of proactive drought management strategies in the Caribbean. Given the potential for both short-term and long-term drought conditions to develop across various islands, it is crucial to implement measures to conserve water resources, manage water demand, and mitigate the potential impacts on vulnerable communities and ecosystems. This includes promoting water-efficient practices in agriculture, industry, and households, as well as developing and implementing drought contingency plans to ensure a coordinated response in the event of prolonged dry periods.

Furthermore, enhancing the region’s capacity for drought monitoring and forecasting is essential for effective drought management. This involves strengthening the network of meteorological stations, improving data collection and analysis capabilities, and developing more sophisticated drought prediction models. By investing in these critical infrastructure and technological enhancements, the Caribbean region can better anticipate and prepare for drought events, minimizing their impact on the environment, economy, and the well-being of its people. The current drought situation serves as a timely reminder of the need for proactive and comprehensive drought management strategies to ensure the Caribbean’s long-term water security and resilience in the face of a changing climate.