SAFETY

The protracted conflict between Israel and Hamas reached a critical juncture on Sunday with the commencement of a fragile ceasefire. After over a year of intense negotiations facilitated by international mediators, including the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, Israel’s Cabinet voted to approve the agreement. The vote, however, was not unanimous, with 24 ministers supporting the deal and eight opposing it, highlighting the deep divisions within the Israeli government regarding the terms of the ceasefire. The implementation of the agreement was briefly delayed due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence on receiving a list of 33 hostages Hamas intended to release. Once Hamas provided the names, the ceasefire officially went into effect at 11:15 a.m. local time in the Eastern Mediterranean, signaling a tentative pause in the devastating conflict.

The ceasefire agreement, brokered with the involvement of outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden, marks a significant turning point in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While Biden endorsed the deal in May and the current Israeli Cabinet approved it on Saturday, the incoming Trump administration, set to take office on Monday, will be responsible for overseeing its implementation and navigating the complex challenges that lie ahead. The agreement is structured in three six-week phases, with the details of subsequent stages still under negotiation. The initial phase focuses on several key elements, including the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas, an increase in aid to the Gaza Strip, and the crucial release of hostages and prisoners held by both sides. These initial steps are intended to build trust and pave the way for further negotiations on the more contentious issues at the heart of the conflict.

The backdrop against which this ceasefire unfolds is one of immense devastation and human suffering. The conflict, ignited by a deadly Hamas attack in October 2023 that claimed the lives of 1,200 Israelis and resulted in the capture of 250 hostages, spiraled into a protracted and brutal exchange of fire. Israel’s subsequent counteroffensive in Gaza, launched in response to the Hamas attack, resulted in a staggering death toll, with Gaza’s Health Ministry reporting over 46,000 Palestinian fatalities. The sheer scale of human loss underscores the urgency and importance of the ceasefire, as it offers a glimmer of hope for a path towards a more enduring peace in the region.

President-elect Donald Trump, poised to assume the presidency, views the ceasefire as a strategic opportunity to advance his foreign policy agenda, specifically the expansion of the Abraham Accords. He aims to capitalize on the momentum generated by the agreement to further normalize relations between Israel and Arab nations, with a particular focus on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, however, has made it clear that its normalization of ties with Israel is contingent upon demonstrable progress towards a Palestinian state, adding another layer of complexity to the already delicate diplomatic landscape. Trump has publicly praised the ceasefire agreement, attributing its success to his leadership and influence, setting the stage for his administration’s approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The ceasefire agreement has also drawn criticism, particularly regarding the role of the United States in mediating the conflict. Critics have questioned President Biden’s approach, arguing that the U.S. could have exerted more pressure to moderate Israel’s military response to the Hamas attack and minimize civilian casualties. The debate over the extent of U.S. influence and its responsibility in mitigating the conflict’s devastating consequences is likely to persist, particularly as the incoming Trump administration takes the reins and charts its own course in the region.

Prime Minister Netanyahu, while ultimately accepting the ceasefire agreement, faced significant internal political pressure, particularly from far-right elements within his coalition government who opposed any concessions to Hamas. However, the influence of President-elect Trump, coupled with the potential benefits of aligning with the incoming U.S. administration, appear to have played a pivotal role in Netanyahu’s decision. Observers suggest that Netanyahu prioritized cultivating a strong relationship with the Trump administration over appeasing his hardline allies, a strategic calculation underscored by Trump’s envoy’s insistence on meeting on the Jewish Sabbath, a clear signal of the incoming administration’s uncompromising stance against any delaying tactics by Israel. This demonstration of firmness likely contributed to Netanyahu’s decision to proceed with the ceasefire, despite internal opposition, underscoring the intricate interplay of domestic and international pressures shaping the dynamics of the conflict.